Weekly Market Commentary

November 11, 2024

The Markets

Stock markets celebrated the results of the presidential election. Bond markets were less enthusiastic.

Last week, United States stock markets rallied, and the U.S. dollar gained against other currencies, following the presidential election. The CBOE Volatility Index, Wall Street’s Fear gauge, also moved lower after concerns about a long wait for election results were quelled by a swift result, reported Alexandra Semenova of Bloomberg.

“…the [stock] markets roared in approval of this Trumpvember surprise…Yes, expect tax cuts, less regulation, fewer guardrails, and a government no longer picking winners and losers (except for tariffs), all reasons why investors perceive the incipient environment to be advantageous. And yet, with all the dancing, dancing, dancing in the streets, note that this new freedom could be accompanied by greater risk in the capital markets,” reported Andy Serwer of Barron’s.

The bond market’s response to the election was measured. The Federal Reserve (Fed) began lowering the federal funds rate in September. Typically, Fed rate cuts lead to lower borrowing costs for consumers and businesses, which supports economic growth. However, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury, which is a benchmark for mortgage rates, corporate bonds, and other loan rates, has trended higher since September as strong economic data caused the market to rethink its expectations for future rate cuts.

Now, the bond market is evaluating future rate cuts in the context of the new administration’s policies. “…the outlook for further rate cuts has been clouded by expectations that key elements of Trump’s economic platform such as tax cuts and tariffs will lead to faster growth and higher consumer prices. That could make the Fed wary of risking an inflationary rebound by cutting rates too deeply next year,” reported Davide Barbuscia and Lewis Krauskopf of Reuters.

Markets are likely to remain volatile over the coming weeks as investors speculate about the impact of new policies on financial markets. Last week, major U.S. stock indices surged higher. Yields on U.S. Treasuries were mixed with yields moving lower on the shortest and longest maturities and rising for other maturities.

S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods. Sources: Yahoo! Finance; MarketWatch; djindexes.com; U.S. Treasury; London Bullion Market Association. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.

IT’S A DIRTY JOB…If you’re a fan of baseball, you probably know that major league baseball teams don’t use balls that are fresh out of the box. In fact, the Official Baseball Rules for 2024 explains umpires’ pregame duties which include:

“Receive from the home Club a supply of regulation baseballs, the number and make to be certified to the home Club by the Office of the Commissioner. The umpire shall inspect the baseballs and ensure they are regulation baseballs and that they are properly rubbed so that the gloss is removed. The umpire shall be the sole judge of the fitness of the balls to be used in the game.”

Usually, the gloss is removed by rubbing Lena Blackburne Baseball Rubbing Mud into the unused baseballs. “Originally marketed as ‘magic,’ it’s just a little thicker than chocolate pudding—a tiny dab is enough to remove the factory gloss from a new ball without mucking up the seams or getting the cover too filthy. Equipment managers rub it on before every game, allowing pitchers to get a dependable grip,” reported Emma Baccellieri of Sports Illustrated.

The mud is sourced from a secret location, somewhere along a tributary of the Delaware River, has been passed from generation to generation of this family business since the 1930s. The mud is unique because it has “a high clay content in the soil, an oddity for the area, plus brackish water from the tributary mixing with ‘cedar water’ dropping from nearby trees. Perfect conditions exist for only about a mile.” Jim Bintliff told Baccellieri.

Recently, researchers at the University of Pennsylvania School of Engineering and Applied Science and School of Arts & Sciences studied the mud and then published their findings in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. According to ScienceDaily, the paper’s lead author devised three experiments to determine whether mudding baseballs is a superstition, like rally caps and playoff beards, or a value-adding process. The experiments measured the mud’s spread-ability and stickiness, as well as any change in “friction against the fingertips.”

The experiments confirmed baseball players’ long-held belief that magic mud really does improve the performance of baseballs. The substance “spreads like a skin cream and grips like sandpaper,” according to the research.

Weekly Focus – Think About It

“Baseball is 90 percent mental. The other half is physical.”

—Yogi Berra, baseball legend