Data as of 9/21/18
|
1-Week
|
Y-T-D
|
1-Year
|
3-Year
|
5-Year
|
10-Year
|
Standard & Poor's 500 (Domestic Stocks) |
0.9%
|
9.6%
|
17.2%
|
14.2%
|
11.5%
|
9.3%
|
Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. |
2.7
|
-4.3
|
0.0
|
6.8
|
2.1
|
2.0
|
10-year Treasury Note (Yield Only) |
3.1
|
NA
|
2.3
|
2.2
|
2.7
|
3.8
|
Gold (per ounce) |
-0.3
|
-7.5
|
-7.2
|
1.9
|
-2.0
|
3.0
|
Bloomberg Commodity Index |
2.4
|
-4.3
|
-0.5
|
-1.6
|
-7.9
|
-7.4
|
DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index |
-0.4
|
3.2
|
5.8
|
9.2
|
9.7
|
8.2
|
Morgan Kenwood Newsletter
- Bullish 32.1 percent of respondents (historic average: 38.5 percent)
- Neutral 35.1 percent of respondents (historic average: 31.0 percent)
- Bearish 32.8 percent of respondents (historic average: 30.5 percent)
Data as of 9/14/18
|
1-Week
|
Y-T-D
|
1-Year
|
3-Year
|
5-Year
|
10-Year
|
Standard & Poor's 500 (Domestic Stocks) |
1.2%
|
8.7%
|
16.4%
|
14.2%
|
11.3%
|
9.3%
|
Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. |
1.4
|
-6.8
|
-2.3
|
5.9
|
1.8
|
2.1
|
10-year Treasury Note (Yield Only) |
3.0
|
NA
|
2.2
|
2.2
|
2.9
|
3.5
|
Gold (per ounce) |
0.3
|
-7.3
|
-9.3
|
2.9
|
-1.9
|
4.5
|
Bloomberg Commodity Index |
-3.3
|
-6.5
|
-3.1
|
-2.4
|
-8.6
|
-7.1
|
DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index |
0.2
|
3.6
|
4.5
|
10.7
|
9.9
|
8.6
|
- Chiweenie: a cross between a Chihuahua and a dachshund
- Schnoodle: a cross between a schnauzer and a poodle
- Yorkie-poo: a cross between a Yorkshire terrier and a poodle
- Harissa: spicy North African chili paste
- Kabocha: a type of Japanese pumpkin
- Kombucha: a fermented, bubbly tea drink
- Adorbs
- Avo
- Bougie
- Fave
- Guac
- Marg
- Ribbie
- Zuke
The Markets
Remember: Volatility is normal.
Major U.S. stock market indices climbed into record territory during August. They gave back some gains last week. Peter Wells of Financial Times explained:
"Speculation about a fresh round of tariffs on Chinese imports from the Trump administration weighed on U.S. stocks, handing the S&P 500 its first four-day losing streak in a month. A strong jobs report only hardened expectations that the Federal Reserve views the U.S. economy as healthy enough to withstand a probable interest rate rise later this month."
Strong economic growth and rising wages have the potential to push inflation - increases in prices of everyday goods - higher than the Fed's 2 percent target. The Fed battles inflation and promotes financial stability by raising the Fed funds rate. Usually, higher rates make borrowing more expensive and slow economic growth, reported Katherine Reynolds Lewis at Bankrate.com.
Rising rates in the United States have an effect on emerging markets, too. Colin Dwyer of National Public Radio reported higher interest rates in the United States have enticed investors and they have moved money out of riskier emerging markets investments.
Last week The Wall Street Journal reported, "Emerging markets tipped into bear territory...The MSCI Emerging Markets Index's 0.3 percent decline Thursday, led by selloffs in Russia and the Philippines, pushed that gauge of stocks in poorer countries 20 percent below its recent peak, the common definition of a bear market."
S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index does include reinvested dividends and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods. Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Barron's, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.
why are nordic countries at the top of the world happiness report?It's a question Freakonomics Radio explored in August. They asked Jeff Sachs, a professor at Columbia University, who is also a special adviser to the United Nations Secretary General on the Sustainable Development Goals.
The World Happiness Report ranks 156 countries by the happiness of their citizens. The countries that top the list tend to have high scores in all six of the variables considered to measure well-being. These include income, healthy life expectancy, social support, freedom, trust, and generosity.
Currently, the happiest countries in the world are:
The United States is ranked number 18. That has something to do with our priorities, according to the interview with Sachs. "We have the paradox that income per person rises in the United States, but happiness does not...the United States is falling behind other countries, because we are not pursuing dimensions of happiness that are extremely important: our physical health, the mental health in our community, the social support, the honesty in government."
Helen Russell, author of The Year of Living Danishly, also participated in the interview. She offered this example to illustrate a key difference between the United States and Denmark:
"...there was a story, in New York a few years ago, of a Danish woman who was there, who left her child sleeping outside in a pram, which is what you do in Denmark, and was arrested for child neglect. And lots of people in Denmark didn't understand why it was such a fuss, because in Denmark people trust most people. And this plays into everything. You are not anxious if you trust the people around you, you're not scared they're going to rob you to put food on their table."
What makes you happy?
Weekly Focus - Think About It
"If I were to ask all of you to try and come up with a brand of coffee - a type of coffee, a brew - that made all of you happy, and then I asked you to rate that coffee, the average score in this room for coffee would be about 60 on a scale of 0 to 100. If, however, you allowed me to break you into coffee clusters, maybe three or four coffee clusters, and I could make coffee just for each of those individual clusters, your scores would go from 60 to 75 or 78. The difference between coffee at 60 and coffee at 78 is a difference between coffee that makes you wince and coffee that makes you deliriously happy. That is the final, and I think most beautiful lesson...that in embracing the diversity of human beings, we will find a surer way to true happiness." --Malcolm Gladwell, Journalist and author
Best regards,
Lee Barczak President
* Government bonds and Treasury Bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value. However, the value of fund shares is not guaranteed and will fluctuate. *Corporate bonds are considered higher risk than government bonds but normally offer a higher yield and are subject to market, interest rate and credit risk as well as additional risks based on the quality of issuer coupon rate, price, yield, maturity, and redemption features. * The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. You cannot invest directly in this index. * The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged index. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. * The Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index covers approximately 95% of the market capitalization of the 45 developed and emerging countries included in the Index. * The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market. * Gold represents the afternoon gold price as reported by the London Bullion Market Association. The gold price is set twice daily by the London Gold Fixing Company at 10:30 and 15:00 and is expressed in U.S. dollars per fine troy ounce. * The Bloomberg Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998. * The DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones. * Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods. * Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future performance. * Economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful. * Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. * You cannot invest directly in an index. * Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision. |
- Services ($58 billion)
- Vehicles ($52 billion)
- Machinery ($43 billion)
- Electrical machinery ($25 billion)
- Agricultural products ($24 billion)
- Mineral fuels ($20 billion)
- Plastics ($13 billion)
Data as of 8/31/18
|
1-Week
|
Y-T-D
|
1-Year
|
3-Year
|
5-Year
|
10-Year
|
Standard & Poor's 500 (Domestic Stocks) |
0.9%
|
8.5%
|
17.4%
|
13.7%
|
12.1%
|
8.6%
|
Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. |
0.4
|
-5.1
|
0.9
|
5.9
|
3.1
|
1.5
|
10-year Treasury Note (Yield Only) |
2.9
|
NA
|
2.1
|
2.2
|
2.9
|
3.8
|
Gold (per ounce) |
0.4
|
-7.3
|
-8.3
|
1.7
|
-2.9
|
3.9
|
Bloomberg Commodity Index |
0.1
|
-5.0
|
-1.1
|
-2.7
|
-8.5
|
-7.6
|
DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index |
0.8
|
4.7
|
6.8
|
10.9
|
11.2
|
7.9
|
- Information technology
- Healthcare
- Financials
- Consumer discretionary
- Industrials
- Consumer staples
- Energy
- Utilities
- Real estate
- Materials
- Telecommunications services
The Markets
Tick, Tock.
Not everybody loves meetings and even fewer enjoy reading the minutes, but investors make an exception with the Federal Reserve. This week the Fed published the minutes from its August 1meeting. While no changes were made to interest rates, the minutes did provide insight to how the Fed sees the U.S. economy.
Key Insights:
· The economy is strong. The economy is poised for its best annual growth in a decade due to stimulation from tax cuts and federal spending. The current nine-year bull market is about to be the longest bull market in history and the stock market hit a new high last week. Inflation is back to the 2 percent range, after missing for several years, and the already tight labor market continues to tighten, reported The Wall Street Journal.
While the Fed remains concerned about the risks of inflation, it also is concerned about slowness in the housing market. Home building has declined due to a labor shortage and to higher cost in materials from tariffs, according to The New York Times.
· When will the Fed stop raising rates? The Fed is all but guaranteed to raise rates in September, with market odds at a 96 percent probability and a 60 percent probability for another hike in December. The Fed will continue its gradual interest rate increases for now as long as economic activity is consistently expanding at a sustainable rate. The minutes revealed the Fed governors will soon revise its policy stance from “accommodative to neutral,” reported MarketWatch.
· What does the Fed think about tariffs? The Fed is aware tariffs could derail their initial plan of steady rate hikes. Although concerned about President Trump’s tariffs, they are waiting for economic data to assess the damage. They did, however, say tariffs would have “adverse effects on business sentiment, investment spending, and employment. Moreover, wide-ranging tariff increases would also reduce the purchasing power of U.S. households,” reported The New York Times.
The Fed is content, for now, with their current policy stance of steady rate hikes, but are on edge as they wait to see how fiscal policy plays out in the data. The Fed is more likely to raise rates two more times this year given the strength of the economy.
Data as of 8/24/18 |
1-Week |
Y-T-D |
1-Year |
3-Year |
5-Year |
10-Year |
Standard & Poor's 500 (Domestic Stocks) |
0.9% |
7.5% |
17.9% |
14.9% |
11.6% |
8.3% |
Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. |
1.5 |
-5.5 |
1.4 |
7.2 |
2.8 |
1.4 |
10-year Treasury Note (Yield Only) |
2.8 |
NA |
2.2 |
2.0 |
2.8 |
3.9 |
Gold (per ounce) |
1.6 |
-7.6 |
-7.1 |
0.9 |
-2.8 |
3.8 |
Bloomberg Commodity Index |
0.4 |
-5.1 |
0.2 |
-0.9 |
-8.5 |
-8.0 |
DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index |
-0.9 |
3.9 |
6.7 |
10.4 |
10.4 |
8.0 |
S&P 500, Dow Jones Global ex-US, Gold, Bloomberg Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT Total Return Index does include reinvested dividends and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Barron’s, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable.
how would you ask for a raise? When CNBC asked business author Suzy Welch how someone should ask for a raise she explained, “The key…is an approach that includes research and emphasizes your achievements.” She recommended three basic steps:
1. Time your request right. Ask after a big win, a positive performance review, or when being asked to accept more responsibility.
2. Prove your case. Be prepared to explain why you deserve a raise, including your achievements and results.
3. Establish a time frame for action. If your boss isn’t prepared to provide an answer immediately, end your meeting by asking when you can expect a response.
This is sound advice.
When Willy Appelman of Fast Company asked children at the Underhill Playground how they would ask a boss for a raise, the kids believed the keys to success were good manners, hard work, baked goods, and physical appearance. Here are some of their recommendations:
· “Ask them politely and say: Can I please have a raise because I’ve been really working hard this week.”
· “Go up to your boss and say: Is it okay if I have some more money?”
· “Be confident and try your best.”
· “I would give them desserts, like pastry and cookies.”
· “Make sure you look weaker than your employer so they have power and they might feel merciful...”
If you recently received a raise or a bonus (or expect to), you may want to give some serious thought to how you will to use the additional income – spend it, save it, or do some of both – and how your choices will affect your taxes. If you’d like to discuss your options, give us a call.
Weekly Focus – Think About It
“The tax advisor had just read the story of Cinderella to his four-year-old daughter for the first time. The little girl was fascinated by the story, especially the part where the pumpkin turns into a golden coach. Suddenly she piped up, ‘Daddy, when the pumpkin turned into a golden coach, would that be classed as income or a long-term capital gain?’”
--Unknown